Likud leaders argue over polling data and rival spending ahead of Tuesday vote

Likud is split on its chances of winning the election scheduled for Tuesday, with party insiders debating the reliability of internal data and the financial muscle behind its rivals.

One party source described the division as a conflict between those who trust the optimistic forecasts of Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud's internal polling, and those who fear the scale of the opposition's mobilization. The source noted, “We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so.” Regarding the polling results, the source added, “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other.”

Party officials point to a surge in activity from independent organizations and nonprofits that are directing large sums of money toward voter turnout in the camp opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to sources, these groups are funding social media campaigns, roadside signage, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. They are also facilitating flights for Israelis abroad to return and cast ballots.

A Likud source characterized this influx of outside support as “the nonprofits affair on steroids.” The party argues that these organizations provide an extensive support network to Netanyahu's rivals, operating outside the standard rules for party financing. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on campaign video limits and public resource usage while neglecting the activity of these third-party groups.

The party did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts cited or for the claim that the activity violated the law. Despite these concerns, Likud is preparing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day. The strategy focuses on preventing right-wing voters from shifting their support to smaller parties.

Negotiations to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race failed, even after Rabbi Eli Sadan issued a statement backing Winter. Likud is currently courting supporters of the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. In a related development, the Ahi party led by Rabbi Abergel has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud, which included discussions about legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister.

The election date was set for October 27 to allow the current government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided as they prepared to head to the polls.